Future of Data Driven Marketing

Finally Google put all the ambiguities to rest. They just joined Safari and Firefox and the larger iOS ecosystem in declaring that they will not track those who use their platforms. Safari and Firefox did not give any alternative to tracking. Google, gave an alternative proposal in their Privacy Sandbox proposal last year and gave the industry time. Apple said they are open for discussions to manage expectations. I believe, AndroidOS will soon join this “prevention of tracking” bandwagon. Basically no tracking. Find an alternative.

Basically, a decade long run towards automated selling of digital inventory comes to an end. From selling remnant inventory to real time bidding to programmatic scaling up, the last decade saw the emergence of DSPs and SSPs. From Google to Adobe everybody acquired companies to play the game. It is just that, it went too far for comfort, when all this crossed the lines of rampant tracking, opaque and fraudulent business practices. Now there is a reset. Time to take a pause and course-correct. For sure. We have 9 months.

As the cookie crumbles, I see digital marketing re-architecting itself across two axes with four possibilities. 

KNOW YOUR CONSUMER (KYC)

How well brands know their consumer? De-duplicated and resolved identities, to be precise. Not just a list of email addresses. Like for example, any direct to consumer brand will have in their record. In my estimation, not more than 30% of the brands today have such information.

CAN YOU COLLABORATE (CYC)

How well can a brand collaborate? Privacy compliant activation of identities, to be precise. Not just matching profiles. Like for example, tagless and cookieless with only server to server connection. In my estimation, not more than 30% of the brands today have such capabilities. 

So now let us put this in a typical 2x2 matrix like all consultancy companies do. It just helps. For simplicity. 

Quadrant 1 - Targeting Cohorts

50% of the data driven marketing will fall into this category. Those who do not know their consumer (70%) and those who cannot collaborate in a compliant manner (70%) - 70% x 70% = 49% ~ 50%. They can only target consumers on aggregates, in other word, cohorts.

1. Google has offered Federated Learning of Cohorts on their Chrome browser, ie., 60% of the universe. 
2. Remaining 40% of the browser universe and the iOS platform have no alternatives today. Android is still free from all of this.
3. This is claimed to be as efficient as the cookie alternatives as per the trials performed by Google.

Quadrant 2 - Remarketing

20% of the data driven marketing will fall into this category. Those who do not know their consumer (70%) but has the technological capabilities to collaborate in a compliant manner (30%) - 70% x 30% = 21% ~ 20%. Basically “Bring your own server” and match the interests of those profiles and activate. 

1. Brands need to work directly with the respective walled gardens across Google, Tik Tok, Snap, FB, Spotify....pick your count.
2. No return path attribution possible. Basically, leverage syndicated data sets and work with platforms directly. Good for building reach. 
3. Outcome based, but restricted to respective platforms. Customised creative assets with options to do lots of innovation. Omnichannel creativity is possible.

Quadrant 3 - Retargeting

20% of the data driven marketing will fall into this category. Those who know their consumer (30%) but does not have the technological capabilities to collaborate in a compliant manner (30%) - 30% x 70% = 21% ~ 20%. Most of the SMEs will fall in this category.

1. Brands will have strategic partnership with one or two platforms and work from a bunker or a clean room.
2. No return path attribution possible. Basically, leverage your first party data and work with platforms directly. Good for increasing consumption.
3. Facebook is betting on this in creating a marketplace. Customised creative assets with options to do lots of innovation. Customised innovation with platforms.

Quadrant 4 - The Holy Grail

10% of the data driven marketing will fall into this category. Those who know their consumer (30%) and have the capabilities to collaborate in a compliant manner (30%) - 30% x 30% = 9% ~ 10%. Pure play data driven marketing, the eventual destination, where brands have full control of their marketing investments.

1. Data Driven Digital Marketing on your terms. Not dependent on browsers or mobile operating systems.
2. Full attribution with the ability to optimise the supply chain, with the ability to leverage identity for inventory for better marketing ROI
3. Customised creative assets with omnichannel performance optimisation in privacy compliant private marketplace

This is likely to be the new world order. Brands and Platforms will increase their endeavour to know their consumer and invest in technologies that enables privacy compliant collaboration. Those who can do both will accelerate their path towards the holy grail. Ad Tech companies will horizontally merge or acquire each other to enable quadrant 2 and quadrant 3 customers. Google says, in their blog, that having an alternative to cookie as an identifier, will not be compliant or scalable; basically the holy grail will remain where it is. Well, the jury is still out on that, as I believe there is a solution! But it is safe to assume that such a solution, if made available can only operate in 10% of the market today. And a lot of heavy lifting is required take the industry there. 

In the meanwhile, in my view the industry should focus on the following three areas to make this re-architecture good for all stakeholders. The journey of the next decade.

1. Focus on the cohorts; not on the identities. Ensure that the definitions of the cohorts are standardised and agnostic to browsers and mobile operating systems.
2. Focus on mobile; not just the web. Digital marketing in emerging markets with large population is on mobile; they have not seen a desktop.
3. Focus on cross media measurement; Encourage all platforms to collaborate in a safe and secure environment; this helps in levelling the playing field for all

Return of the Jedi meets Indiana Jones